Should I Stay Home or Leave During an Emergency?
“Bug in vs bug out” is usually framed as a personality test. That’s backwards. The correct answer is a risk calculation based on (1) objective hazards, (2) time horizon, (3) household constraints, and (4) visibility.
Default rule: stay unless your location becomes actively unsafe or you’re about to lose the ability to move safely. This page gives you a clean decision framework, “leave now” thresholds, and low-profile steps for either choice.
Fast Answer Decision Framework Leave-Now Thresholds If You Stay If You Leave Checklists FAQ
Fast answer
The safe default: stay — unless you hit a “leave now” threshold.
If your home is structurally safe and not becoming an active hazard, staying reduces exposure, uncertainty, and conflict. Leaving introduces choke points, crowds, accidents, and loss of control.
Leave when: (1) your location becomes dangerous (fire/gas/flood/structural failure), (2) officials order evacuation and you can still move safely,
or (3) you’re about to lose the window to move (roads closing, medical dependence, fuel constraints, rising water).
Stay when: movement would increase exposure and your biggest risk is visibility (advertising stability/resources).
Stay when: movement would increase exposure and your biggest risk is visibility (advertising stability/resources).
If you want the “hard line” conditions, jump to: Leave-Now Thresholds →
Decision framework
The 4-variable decision model
Don’t decide based on fear or identity (“I’m a bug-in person”). Decide based on four variables you can actually evaluate.
| Variable | What you’re checking | What it usually pushes you toward |
|---|---|---|
| Objective hazard | Fire risk, gas leak, floodwater rise, structural instability, toxic air, downed lines, nearby violence, unavoidable exposure. If your home becomes a hazard, the decision is made for you. | Leave when the hazard is active or accelerating. |
| Time horizon | Minutes/hours vs days/weeks. Short events favor sheltering. Longer events can force movement if utilities/medical needs collapse. | Stay early; re-evaluate as the horizon extends. |
| Household constraints | Kids, pets, mobility limits, medical devices/meds, heat sensitivity, vehicle reliability, ability to carry water/food. | Either direction — but constraints often reduce the safe movement window (so you plan earlier). |
| Visibility & friction | How much you “broadcast” stability and supplies (lights, noise, cooking smells, trash), and how much moving makes you stand out. | Stay if you can go low-profile; leave if staying makes you conspicuous or trapped. |
The core question to ask (every time)
Is my location becoming an active hazard — or is movement the bigger hazard? Your answer changes as conditions change.
Common failure mode
People leave for the wrong reasons
Leaving is often driven by: rumors, boredom, anxiety, social pressure, or “doing something.” Those aren’t hazards — they’re emotions reacting to uncertainty.
- Leaving too early: you trade shelter/control for crowds, traffic, and unpredictable conflict.
- Leaving too late: you get trapped by closures, floodwater, smoke, gridlock, or fuel scarcity.
- Over-signaling: obvious preparedness (gear, behavior, talk) increases targeting and friction.
Related timing page: What makes people leave too early — or too late? →
Leave-now thresholds
When leaving becomes non-negotiable
These are “objective hazard” conditions. If one is true (or rapidly becoming true), you leave if you still have a safe movement window. If you don’t, you shift to immediate harm-reduction while you create one.
Fire / smoke
Fire, smoke, or rapid heat exposure
Fire in/near structure, heavy smoke infiltration, or fast-approaching wildfire/brush fire with shifting wind.
Gas / chemical
Gas leaks or toxic air
Natural gas smell, suspected leak, CO alarm, chemical spill plume, or symptoms consistent with toxic exposure.
Flood / surge
Rising water or storm surge
Rising water trend, storm surge forecast impact for your zone, water entering structure, or evacuation route at risk.
Structural failure
Structural failure or instability
Major roof compromise, leaning walls, foundation shift, cracked supports, or anything that makes the building unreliable.
Utilities become hazards
Utilities become hazards
Downed power lines near home, sparking panels, major water contamination advisory, sewer backup you can’t contain.
Violence / direct threat
Violence or targeted risk
Active violence close enough that sheltering no longer reduces risk, or you’re being targeted/located.
If you want a deeper, concrete breakdown of home damage hazards:
What types of home damage mean you should leave immediately? →
Key point: “I’m uncomfortable” is not a threshold. “My location is becoming a hazard” is.
If you stay
Stay safely by reducing visibility first
If your home is safe, your primary risk becomes signaling. People don’t get targeted for what they own — they get targeted for what others think they have.
- Light discipline: stop broadcasting power. Block windows, reduce spill, avoid patterns.
- Noise discipline: generators, tools, loud entertainment, and routine activity create attention.
- Smell discipline: cooking smells travel and make “resource presence” obvious.
- Trash discipline: packaging and waste reveal supply depth more than anything else.
- Conversation discipline: don’t become “the prepared house.” Don’t perform competence.
Related pages:
How people accidentally signal supplies →
How to stay low-profile while sheltering →
If you stay
Set a re-check schedule (don’t “decide once”)
The correct decision can flip. Create a simple cadence so you don’t get stuck in denial or panic.
| Re-check | Trigger | What you do |
|---|---|---|
| Hourly | Fast-moving hazards: fire/smoke, flood trend, severe weather, nearby incidents. | Confirm exits, check alerts, update go-bag, fuel, meds. |
| Morning + Night | Multi-day outages, civil disruption, heat risk, supply pacing. | Run a short checklist: hazards, household status, visibility leaks. |
| When conditions change | New warnings, neighbor activity changes, utility changes, road status shifts. | Re-run the 4-variable model and adjust. |
Household variables matter. If you have dependents or medical constraints, your “safe movement window” is smaller.
How kids, pets, and mobility issues change the decision →
If you leave
Leaving safely is about friction reduction
The goal is not “tactical.” The goal is boring. Avoid drawing attention, avoid predictable choke points, and keep your movement simple.
Blend
Don’t look prepared
Obvious emergency gear changes how strangers assess you and increases targeting and conflict. Prefer normal-looking bags, neutral clothing, and low-drama behavior.
Move
Keep movement low-profile
You win by reducing interactions. Don’t argue at checkpoints. Don’t “explain your plan.” Avoid attention magnets: crowds, disputes, and obvious supply runs.
Carry
Carry essentials without advertising
The priority is continuity: meds, water, basic hygiene, minimal food, documents, power, and a way to communicate. Avoid “displayed capability.”
Routes
Avoid predictable pressure points
Predictable routes concentrate problems: traffic, fuel fights, enforcement friction, opportunistic theft. Build at least one alternate path and one “stop moving” fallback.
Leaving “just because” is usually a mistake. Leaving because your location is becoming a hazard is not.
If you’re uncertain, use the checklist below and re-check in a set cadence.
Checklist
5-minute decision checklist
- Hazard: Is there an active/accelerating hazard here (fire/gas/flood/structural/toxic air/violence)?
- Window: Do I still have a safe movement window (roads open, fuel available, daylight, weather stable)?
- Household: Do kids/pets/mobility/medical devices reduce our ability to move quickly?
- Visibility: If we stay, can we reduce light/noise/smell/trash signaling fast?
- Fallback: If we leave, do we have a boring plan (route + alternate + “stop moving” point)?
If you hit a leave-now threshold, don’t debate it. Execute the simplest safe move you can.
Checklist
If you choose to stay (low-profile actions)
- Block window light spill; keep rooms dark where possible.
- Reduce routine signals (same times, same sounds, repeated patterns).
- Cook in ways that reduce smell and visibility; avoid “broadcast” behaviors.
- Control waste output; don’t advertise packaging or excess.
- Plan a short, controlled way to interact with neighbors without oversharing.
Neighbor friction page: What to do about neighbors, visitors, or “check-ins” →
Reality check
Simple scenario guide (use this as a sanity filter)
| Scenario | What usually works | The real failure mode |
|---|---|---|
| Short outage / localized disruption | Stay. Reduce visibility. Limit movement. | People drive around, burn fuel, and get stuck in crowds for no reason. |
| Severe storm + credible evacuation for your zone | Leave early (before gridlock) if your home is in the impact zone. | Waiting until the last window, then trying to move when everyone moves. |
| Flood trend rising / roads likely to cut | Leave before routes fail. Don’t “watch it.” | Underestimating how fast access disappears and how hard rescues become. |
| Multi-day outage in dense area | Stay low-profile; manage signaling; pace supplies; re-check twice daily. | Broadcasting power/light and becoming the obvious stable house. |
| Medical dependence (oxygen, insulin, dialysis timing, etc.) | Earlier planning; earlier move if continuity is at risk. | “We’ll see how it goes” until you can’t safely travel or refill. |
Supply longevity without signaling: Ration supplies without obvious shortages → | Use power or light without advertising it →
Your decision isn’t “stay” or “go.” It’s: avoid the bigger hazard.
Start with objective hazards, then manage visibility and friction. Re-check on a schedule. Don’t “perform preparedness.” The safest option is the one that keeps you boring, stable, and out of conflict.
← Back to hubFAQ
Is it usually safer to stay home or leave?
Usually safer to stay if your home is not becoming an active hazard. Movement adds exposure, uncertainty, and conflict. Leave when objective hazards are present or you’re about to lose the safe movement window.
What’s the biggest mistake people make?
Treating the choice as identity or ideology instead of a situational risk calculation. The second biggest mistake is moving because of rumors or anxiety rather than objective thresholds.
What if officials say to evacuate but it doesn’t look bad yet?
If you are in the impact zone and you can move safely, the most reliable advantage is time. Leaving early is about avoiding gridlock and route failure — not about fear.
How do dependents change the decision?
Dependents usually shrink the safe movement window and increase the cost of improvisation. You plan earlier, simplify routes, and prioritize medical/pet continuity before comfort items.
Why does visibility matter so much if I’m staying put?
In prolonged disruption, perceived stability attracts attention. Light, noise, trash, and routine behavior can reveal “resource presence” even when you never talk about it.